Model your supply chain disruption risks.
Most operations directors understand the impact of a single delayed part. Few can instantly model how that delay cascades through production schedules, safety stock, and cash flow. We build simulations that give you these answers when you need them most.
Fragmented supply chain data
Critical supply chain information is often scattered: ERPs track orders, outdated spreadsheets hold lead times, and safety stock rules are documented elsewhere. Often, only a single employee understands how these elements interact.
When a disruption occurs, the response is typically reactive and chaotic, relying on hasty manual calculations rather than integrated data.
The data required to model these scenarios usually exists, but it hasn't been assembled into a functional simulation.
What we build
A simulation of your specific supply chain, constructed from your historical data, allowing you to test variables and observe the cascading effects.
Custom Supply Chain Model
We map suppliers, lead times, transport legs, buffers, and production sequences directly from your ERP data, not a generic template.
Probabilistic Lead Times
Suppliers don't have fixed lead times; they have distributions. We model this variance because the tail-end delays are what actually stop production.
Interactive Scenarios
Test disruptions like a delayed shipment or a halved buffer stock. The model calculates the impact on production schedules and working capital.
Operational Dashboard
We deliver an interactive tool designed for use during critical meetings, providing immediate, data-driven answers.
Project execution
- 01
Scoping and feasibility
We map one product line and evaluate your data's suitability for modeling, providing an honest assessment before proceeding.
- 02
Build and validation
We construct the model and backtest it against a past disruption you experienced. If it cannot reproduce historical realities, it is refined until it does.
- 03
Scenario planning and handover
We implement your most critical scenarios and train your team to use the tool independently.
- 04
Extension or transfer
We can extend the model to other product lines or simply hand over the codebase and infrastructure to your team.
Our expertise
Our specialization involves modeling complex systems with multiple interacting parts using incomplete data—a discipline directly applicable to supply chain dynamics.
Unlike traditional consultancies that deliver static presentations, we provide working software that your team can continue to use and adapt long after the project ends.
Requirements
Most companies possess the necessary data, even if it requires structuring.
- Purchase order history (order dates and receipt dates, ideally for two years). This is essential for modeling lead-time distributions.
- A bill of materials to map dependencies.
- Historical inventory levels (monthly snapshots are sufficient).
- Details of a specific past disruption for validation purposes.
- A consultation with your purchasing team.
We handle messy exports from legacy systems. We will quickly identify if essential data was never recorded.
System limitations
The model simulates the impact of disruptions; it does not predict global events or when disruptions will occur.
Accuracy depends on your historical data. If your system records invoice dates rather than physical delivery dates, the model will reflect that inaccuracy.
The tool quantifies the impact of various scenarios to inform your decisions, but human judgment remains necessary.
Evaluate your supply chain
Describe a recent disruption and its approximate cost. We will assess if a simulation model could help mitigate future risks.